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دانلود رایکان مقاله انگلیسی ISI با موضوع مدلسازی دینامیک سیستم یکپارچه برای ارزیابی کمبود آب

عنوان فارسی مقاله:

مدلسازی دینامیک سیستم یکپارچه برای ارزیابی کمبود آب: مورد مطالعاتی منطقه Kairoun

عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:

Integrated System Dynamics Modelling for water scarcity assessment: Case study of the Kairouan region

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2. System Dynamics Modelling

The water availability scenarios for the Kairouan aquifer have been simulated using System Dynamics Modelling (SDM) concepts (Forrester, 1961; Ford, 1999). SDM is a methodology for studying complex feedback-driven systems in which non-linearity usually plays a key role. SDM is typically used when formal analytical models do not exist, but when simulations can be developed by linking a number of processes (i.e. developing a system structure). Forrester (1961) introduced SDM in the early 1960s as a modelling and simulation methodology for decision-making in industrial management problems. Since then, SDM has been applied to various business and strategy problems (Barlas, 2002; Sterman, 2000) and it has proven useful for the simulation of complex environmental (Ford, 1999; Mulligan and Wainwright, 2004; Mazzoleni et al., 2004; Meutzelfeldt, 2010) and water systems problems (Simonovic, 2003; Chung et al., 2008). SDM has also been used to model environmental systems at a range of scales from local (Stave, 2003; Khan et al., 2009) to global (Simonovic, 2002; Kojiri et al., 2008). Simile (Muetzelfeldt and Massheder, 2003; Simulistics Ltd, 2011) is the specialised graphics/programming environment that was used to implement the SDM water balance model for this case study, mathematically similar and comparable to other SDM environments such as Vensim (Ventana Systems Inc, 2011) and STELLA (ISEE Systems, 2011) in terms of its capabilities and functions, but developed primarily for environmental rather than general purpose/ business applications.