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تخمین تقاضای بنزین ایالات متحده: روش هم انباشتگی هموار کننده متغیر با زمان

عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:

An estimation of U.S. gasoline demand: A smooth time-varying cointegration approach

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1. Introduction
While a great deal of attention has been paid to the empirical investigation of price and income elasticities of gasoline demand (see, for example, Archibald and Gillingham, 1980; Puller and Greening, 1999), only a few studies have attempted to estimate the elasticities beyond 2000.1 Small and Van Dender (2007) used annual crosssectional time-series data from 1966 to 2001 to investigate the rebound effect, improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency encouraging more vehicle utilization, in the U.S. market. They found that the shortrun price elasticities of miles driven and fuel consumption decreased by 50% and 25% over the last 15 years, respectively. Using the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), Kim (2007) obtained an estimate of −0.269 for the price elasticity, which is similar to many previous studies. Wadud et al. (2007) adopted a cointegration analysis and found that the gasoline demand and lifetime income had a long-term stable relationship after the oil shock in 1978. Their estimate for the price elasticity from 1978 to 2004 was much lower than many previous estimates. Hughes et al. (2008) modeled the gasoline demand in a traditional way and found that the short-run price elasticity reduced considerably from the periods 1975–1980 to 2001–2006, but there were no statistically significant differences in the income elasticity between these two periods.

1) مقدمه